Binance.US has said it will apply for a licence with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch its own prediction market.
According to Bloomberg, the company's chief executive officer disclosed the plan during the Rare Evo conference in Las Vegas on 29 July 2026. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has not commented on the matter.
Prediction markets, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of political, economic, and sporting events, have gained wider adoption over the past year. Two platforms, Kalshi Inc and Polymarket, have expanded their user bases, with activity increasing around events such as the World Cup and other closely watched global developments, some of which have drawn scrutiny over the nature of the bets offered.
Binance.US is not the first cryptocurrency exchange seeking regulatory approval to operate in this space. Gemini Space Station Inc obtained a CFTC licence for a prediction market earlier in 2026, while Coinbase Global Inc has entered the segment through a partnership with Kalshi rather than pursuing its own licence. A designated contract market licence, issued by the CFTC, permits an entity to operate a regulated exchange for the trading of futures, options, or in this case, event-based contracts, under federal oversight.
Regulatory history shapes market position
Binance.US has operated with a reduced market share since Binance's global entity reached a settlement with US authorities in 2023 over allegations related to AML controls and sanctions violations.
Following the pardon, Binance's former chief executive has spoken at industry conferences about intentions to expand the company's presence in the US market. Binance.US's move to apply for a CFTC licence follows this broader stated ambition, positioning the exchange to compete in a segment increasingly populated by both crypto-native platforms and traditional exchange operators.
If approved, the licence would allow Binance.US to list and settle event-based contracts under CFTC oversight, aligning it with the regulatory framework already used by Kalshi and Gemini. The application timeline, submission expected next month, suggests any launch of a Binance.US prediction market would follow the standard CFTC review process, though no specific approval date has been indicated.
The development reflects a wider trend of exchanges, both crypto-focused and mainstream, seeking regulated pathways into event contract trading as demand for such products grows among US retail and institutional users.
