Brazil's government has blocked access to 27 websites offering prediction market services, including Polymarket and Kalshi, following the publication of a resolution by the National Monetary Council prohibiting the trading of derivatives whose underlying assets are linked to sporting events, online gambling, and political, electoral, social, cultural, or entertainment events.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the action at a news conference in Brasília, describing the move as part of a broader effort to protect household savings and address rising levels of consumer debt linked to online gambling.
The resolution tasks Brazil's securities regulator, the CVM, with issuing additional regulations and overseeing enforcement of the new framework. An exception was carved out for contracts tied to economic and financial benchmarks, which may be permitted at CVM's discretion.
International context and domestic market implications
Brazil joins France, Hungary, Portugal, and a growing number of jurisdictions that have applied gambling laws to prediction market platforms, requiring operators to obtain licences they have not held. In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has pushed back against state-level attempts to shut down prediction markets, asserting federal regulatory authority over the sector.
Kalshi, one of the largest prediction market platforms, had recently announced plans to expand to Brazil. A Kalshi spokesperson said the company is reviewing the resolution. Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The resolution also affects domestic market development. Brazil's main stock exchange, B3, had been exploring entry into the prediction market space and confirmed it will launch six new contracts on 27 April tied to the Ibovespa equity index, the Brazilian real, and Bitcoin. B3 had studied expanding into event-based contracts, including election-linked products, ahead of Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, but the new resolution prohibits such contracts.
Durigan said the government will continue advancing stricter enforcement and regulation to curb the social harm that unregulated gambling causes to the Brazilian population.
